Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 4043 at 06:51 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22%.

Safest bet that day AA 4043 ICT 06:51 → ORD 09:02 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest OO 5001 ICT 18:12 → ORD 20:28 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4043 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ICT 06:51	ORD 09:02	6%	2%	0.8%	92%
UA 786 United Flight history →	ICT 07:25	ORD 09:35	7%	3%	0.6%	86%
UA 5810 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ICT 10:57	ORD 13:10	11%	4%	0.7%	80%
G7 4555 GoJet	ICT 14:42	ORD 16:39	18%	4%	0.9%	no record
OO 6287 SkyWest	ICT 14:05	ORD 16:09	18%	6%	0.7%	no record
G7 4558 GoJet	ICT 18:18	ORD 20:15	22%	5%	1.2%	no record
OO 5001 SkyWest	ICT 18:12	ORD 20:28	22%	6%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON