tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
MQ 3974 Envoy ICT 06:06 PHX 06:48 5% 2% 0.6% no record
MQ 3507 Envoy ICT 06:02 PHX 06:41 5% 2% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Wichita). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ICT 05:43 → ATL 08:54DL 2216 2h 16m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796 8h 20m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → ICT 06:08 → DEN 06:53UA 5355 · flown by SkyWest 3h 01m Denver DEN 09:54 → PHX 10:57UA 1782 6h 49m 98% 88%
AmericanDetails → ICT 05:56 → DFW 07:30AA 5104 · flown by PSA 2h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:47 → PHX 10:54AA 2315 6h 58m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → ICT 11:11 → ATL 14:26DL 1637 2h 18m Atlanta ATL 16:44 → PHX 17:52DL 836 8h 41m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → ICT 07:25 → ORD 09:35UA 786 1h 38m Chicago ORD 11:13 → PHX 13:06UA 2164 7h 41m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → ICT 09:13 → IAH 11:11UA 4838 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 13m Houston IAH 14:24 → PHX 15:23UA 1798 8h 10m 100% 85%
AmericanDetails → ICT 11:25 → DFW 12:50AA 4142 · flown by Envoy 3h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:32 → PHX 17:15AA 1232 7h 50m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → ICT 10:57 → ORD 13:10UA 5810 · flown by SkyWest 2h 50m Chicago ORD 16:00 → PHX 17:44UA 2015 8h 47m 98% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON