Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: YX 4786 at 13:13 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19%.

Nonstops that day


YX 4786 Republic	ILM 13:13	BOS 15:54	7%	4%	0.6%	no record
B6 1290 JetBlue Flight history →	ILM 14:32	BOS 16:45	19%	9%	0.6%	60%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ILM 05:48 → ATL 07:17DL 3187	2h 48m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → BOS 12:45DL 855	6h 57m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	ILM 06:58 → LGA 08:44DL 5237 · flown by Endeavor	3h 16m New York	LGA 12:00 → BOS 13:21DL 5761 · flown by Republic	6h 23m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	ILM 10:29 → ATL 12:01DL 376	1h 58m Atlanta	ATL 13:59 → BOS 16:45DL 726	6h 16m	100%	90%
United Details →	ILM 06:00 → EWR 07:45UA 4384 · flown by GoJet	2h 15m Newark	EWR 10:00 → BOS 11:16UA 375	5h 16m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	ILM 18:48 → ATL 20:35DL 1292	2h 05m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → BOS 01:20 +1DL 865	6h 32m	97%	88%
American Details →	ILM 08:24 → CLT 09:45AA 2960	2h 44m Charlotte	CLT 12:29 → BOS 14:53AA 1140	6h 29m	98%	87%
American Details →	ILM 06:16 → CLT 07:21AA 2695	2h 53m Charlotte	CLT 10:14 → BOS 12:31AA 2263	6h 15m	95%	86%
American Details →	ILM 15:39 → DCA 17:16AA 5313 · flown by PSA	1h 56m Washington	DCA 19:12 → BOS 21:07AA 4668 · flown by Republic	5h 28m	95%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON