Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 6–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2960 ILM 08:24 → CLT 09:45 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2105 ILM 19:02 → CLT 20:14 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 2960 American Flight history →	ILM 08:24	CLT 09:45	6%	2%	0.7%	90%
OH 5482 PSA	ILM 13:51	CLT 15:03	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 2695 American Flight history →	ILM 06:16	CLT 07:21	7%	2%	0.7%	94%
AA 2413 American	ILM 15:24	CLT 16:42	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2105 American Flight history →	ILM 19:02	CLT 20:14	12%	4%	0.7%	79%
AA 5820 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	ILM 11:04	CLT 12:24	13%	2%	0.0%	87%
AA 5822 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	ILM 12:59	CLT 14:20	17%	12%	1.6%	83%
AA 6116 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	ILM 18:06	CLT 19:29	32%	22%	1.4%	68%
AA 5823 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	ILM 16:15	CLT 17:38	42%	21%	0.0%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON