tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
MQ 3415 Envoy ILM 07:07 DFW 09:28 5% 2% 0.6% no record
MQ 4016 Envoy ILM 16:20 DFW 18:26 12% 2% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Wilmington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ILM 05:48 → ATL 07:17DL 3187 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 09:52 → DFW 11:12DL 961 6h 24m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → ILM 06:58 → LGA 08:44DL 5237 · flown by Endeavor 3h 45m New York LGA 12:29 → DFW 15:10DL 869 9h 12m 98% 89%
AmericanDetails → ILM 08:24 → CLT 09:45AA 2960 3h 24m Charlotte CLT 13:09 → DFW 14:54AA 1690 7h 30m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → ILM 10:29 → ATL 12:01DL 376 2h 29m Atlanta ATL 14:30 → DFW 15:45DL 921 6h 16m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → ILM 18:48 → ATL 20:35DL 1292 2h 19m Atlanta ATL 22:54 → DFW 00:13 +1DL 818 6h 25m 97% 87%
AmericanDetails → ILM 19:02 → CLT 20:14AA 2105 1h 53m Charlotte CLT 22:07 → DFW 23:58AA 1256 5h 56m 97% 86%
AmericanDetails → ILM 06:16 → CLT 07:21AA 2695 1h 53m Charlotte CLT 09:14 → DFW 11:03AA 575 5h 47m 95% 86%
AmericanDetails → ILM 12:33 → ORD 14:03AA 3970 · flown by Envoy 2h 51m Chicago ORD 16:54 → DFW 19:36AA 2499 8h 03m 100% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON