Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 4384 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	ILM 06:00	EWR 07:45	7%	2%	1.0%	90%
G7 4524 GoJet	ILM 12:43	EWR 14:31	14%	4%	1.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ILM 05:48 → ATL 07:17DL 3187	1h 01m Atlanta	ATL 08:18 → EWR 10:29DL 2397	4h 41m	97%	90%
American Details →	ILM 06:16 → CLT 07:21AA 2695	3h 29m Charlotte	CLT 10:50 → EWR 12:50AA 1697	6h 34m	95%	84%
Delta Details →	ILM 10:29 → ATL 12:01DL 376	1h 08m Atlanta	ATL 13:09 → EWR 15:24DL 2322	4h 55m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	ILM 18:48 → ATL 20:35DL 1292	1h 07m Atlanta	ATL 21:42 → EWR 23:54DL 2527	5h 06m	94%	76%
Delta Details →	ILM 14:28 → ATL 16:05DL 731	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 18:35 → EWR 20:54DL 2498	6h 26m	96%	76%
American Details →	ILM 12:33 → ORD 14:03AA 3970 · flown by Envoy	3h 33m Chicago	ORD 17:36 → EWR 21:00AA 3253	8h 27m	100%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON