Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: YX 4483 at 07:42 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–20%.

Safest bet that day YX 4483 ILM 07:42 → LGA 09:40 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 5212 ILM 17:41 → LGA 19:25 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4483 Republic	ILM 07:42	LGA 09:40	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 5237 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	ILM 06:58	LGA 08:44	6%	2%	0.7%	95%
YX 4401 Republic	ILM 11:08	LGA 13:02	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 5186 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	ILM 11:29	LGA 13:13	10%	3%	0.7%	76%
YX 4404 Republic	ILM 18:14	LGA 20:15	19%	10%	0.7%	no record
DL 5212 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	ILM 17:41	LGA 19:25	20%	8%	0.8%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON