Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, MQ 4122 at 08:07, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


MQ 4122 Envoy	ILM 08:07	MIA 10:16	9%	3%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ILM 05:48 → ATL 07:17DL 3187	1h 38m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510	5h 09m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	ILM 06:58 → LGA 08:44DL 5237 · flown by Endeavor	2h 31m New York	LGA 11:15 → MIA 14:24DL 1538	7h 26m	98%	85%
American Details →	ILM 06:16 → CLT 07:21AA 2695	1h 52m Charlotte	CLT 09:13 → MIA 11:24AA 3184	5h 08m	95%	84%
United Details →	ILM 06:00 → EWR 07:45UA 4384 · flown by GoJet	1h 24m Newark	EWR 09:09 → MIA 12:22UA 2785	6h 22m	95%	83%
American Details →	ILM 08:24 → CLT 09:45AA 2960	1h 17m Charlotte	CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969	4h 47m	94%	83%
Delta Details →	ILM 10:29 → ATL 12:01DL 376	1h 32m Atlanta	ATL 13:33 → MIA 15:33DL 1323	5h 04m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	ILM 18:48 → ATL 20:35DL 1292	2h 18m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	6h 07m	97%	81%
American Details →	ILM 15:39 → DCA 17:16AA 5313 · flown by PSA	3h 39m Washington	DCA 20:55 → MIA 23:45AA 2214	8h 06m	99%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON