Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 5–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 4442 ILM 09:30 → ORD 11:11 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest MQ 4020 ILM 17:47 → ORD 19:25 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4442 Republic	ILM 09:30	ORD 11:11	5%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 3970 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ILM 12:33	ORD 14:03	8%	3%	0.6%	89%
MQ 4020 Envoy	ILM 17:47	ORD 19:25	13%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON