Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 1–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 3153 IND 06:06 → AUS 07:39 · 1% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 4027 IND 18:30 → AUS 20:14 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Against a calm day 5% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 4% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3153 Southwest	IND 06:06	AUS 07:39	1%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 2643 Southwest	IND 10:57	AUS 12:29	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 4015 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IND 07:25	AUS 09:03	4%	3%	0.4%	90%
WN 1554 Southwest	IND 16:24	AUS 17:57	6%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 4027 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IND 18:30	AUS 20:14	9%	4%	0.6%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON