Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 4626 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–9%.

Safest bet that day AA 4626 IND 06:00 → DCA 07:50 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest OH 5587 IND 15:44 → DCA 17:27 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4626 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 06:00	DCA 07:50	3%	1%	0.6%	83%
AA 4407 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 09:21	DCA 11:17	4%	2%	0.6%	52%
AA 4352 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 07:36	DCA 09:26	5%	2%	0.6%	84%
AA 4593 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 20:26	DCA 22:15	8%	2%	0.7%	72%
AA 4452 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 17:07	DCA 19:09	9%	3%	0.7%	71%
OH 5587 PSA	IND 15:44	DCA 17:27	14%	5%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON