Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 1623 at 06:33 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–13%.

Safest bet that day WN 1623 IND 06:33 → DEN 07:18 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1229 IND 18:57 → DEN 19:50 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1623 Southwest	IND 06:33	DEN 07:18	2%	1%	0.4%	no record
UA 1607 United Flight history →	IND 08:00	DEN 08:51	6%	1%	0.5%	84%
WN 403 Southwest	IND 14:02	DEN 14:47	7%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 2058 Southwest	IND 19:06	DEN 19:53	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
F9 2345 Frontier Flight history →	IND 16:00	DEN 17:01	10%	3%	0.6%	79%
UA 377 United Flight history →	IND 15:31	DEN 16:19	10%	2%	0.5%	85%
UA 1229 United	IND 18:57	DEN 19:50	13%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON