Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 2782 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 2782 IND 06:01 → DFW 07:35 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 2456 IND 17:14 → DFW 18:40 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2782 American Flight history →	IND 06:01	DFW 07:35	6%	3%	1.0%	89%
AA 1296 American Flight history →	IND 07:20	DFW 08:50	10%	3%	0.9%	85%
AA 1506 American Flight history →	IND 11:07	DFW 12:25	10%	3%	0.9%	85%
AA 3312 American	IND 14:24	DFW 15:44	14%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 2456 American Flight history →	IND 17:14	DFW 18:40	20%	6%	1.2%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON