Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 5–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day 9E 5165 IND 06:31 → DTW 07:45 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 3966 IND 12:06 → DTW 13:19 · 8% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


9E 5165 Endeavor	IND 06:31	DTW 07:45	5%	1%	0.7%	no record
DL 4897 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	IND 07:50	DTW 09:04	5%	2%	0.7%	91%
9E 5147 Endeavor	IND 10:19	DTW 11:33	5%	2%	0.7%	no record
9E 5405 Endeavor	IND 14:07	DTW 15:21	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
YX 5659 Republic	IND 17:09	DTW 18:28	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
9E 5341 Endeavor	IND 19:33	DTW 20:46	7%	3%	0.7%	no record
OO 3966 SkyWest	IND 12:06	DTW 13:19	8%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON