Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: YX 3301 at 06:16 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–29%.

Safest bet that day YX 3301 IND 06:16 → EWR 08:20 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 3571 IND 18:55 → EWR 21:10 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3301 Republic	IND 06:16	EWR 08:20	5%	2%	2.2%	no record
UA 3567 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 07:05	EWR 09:11	6%	2%	2.1%	92%
UA 3451 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 09:05	EWR 11:11	7%	2%	2.1%	95%
YX 3666 Republic	IND 10:54	EWR 13:18	11%	4%	2.8%	no record
YX 3677 Republic	IND 12:04	EWR 14:26	17%	5%	2.1%	no record
UA 3667 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 15:58	EWR 18:28	24%	9%	2.8%	86%
UA 3571 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 18:55	EWR 21:10	29%	8%	2.6%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON