Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via Denver, leaving 08:00, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time.

Nonstops that day


DL 1799 Delta	IND 16:53	LAX 18:21	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 598 American Flight history →	IND 07:00	LAX 08:27	10%	3%	0.7%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind Indianapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IND 07:50 → DTW 09:04DL 4897 · flown by Endeavor	3h 46m Detroit	DTW 12:50 → LAX 14:35DL 634	9h 45m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	IND 10:35 → ATL 12:23DL 3125	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 14:45 → LAX 16:17DL 753	8h 42m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	IND 08:05 → ATL 09:41DL 1901	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895	9h 07m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	IND 07:00 → MSP 07:49DL 2757	3h 41m Minneapolis	MSP 11:30 → LAX 13:23DL 2119	9h 23m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30DL 3105	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → LAX 11:55DL 501	9h 00m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	IND 07:55 → SLC 09:26DL 2137	2h 04m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → LAX 12:27DL 829	7h 32m	100%	89%
American Details →	IND 07:26 → ORD 07:40AA 4557 · flown by Republic	2h 19m Chicago	ORD 09:59 → LAX 12:33AA 1979	8h 07m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	IND 12:42 → ATL 14:30DL 2952	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 17:58 → LAX 19:30DL 500	9h 48m	100%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON