Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 4386 at 13:04, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 4386 Southwest	IND 13:04	MCI 13:42	6%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 1 h behind Indianapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30DL 3105	3h 35m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MCI 12:13DL 2747	7h 18m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	IND 07:00 → MSP 07:49DL 2757	2h 15m Minneapolis	MSP 10:04 → MCI 11:37DL 1349	5h 37m	99%	91%
United Details →	IND 06:00 → ORD 06:20UA 3479 · flown by Republic	2h 20m Chicago	ORD 08:40 → MCI 10:29UA 1484	5h 29m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	IND 08:05 → ATL 09:41DL 1901	3h 43m Atlanta	ATL 13:24 → MCI 14:29DL 1443	7h 24m	100%	91%
United Details →	IND 06:59 → ORD 07:20UA 3483 · flown by Republic	3h 33m Chicago	ORD 10:53 → MCI 12:40UA 5997 · flown by SkyWest	6h 41m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	IND 06:55 → ATL 08:36DL 3106	1h 24m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → MCI 11:11DL 2908	5h 16m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	IND 07:55 → SLC 09:26DL 2137	1h 08m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:34 → MCI 13:57DL 2882	7h 02m	98%	89%
American Details →	IND 07:25 → ORD 07:39AA 4557 · flown by Republic	2h 41m Chicago	ORD 10:20 → MCI 12:04AA 6215 · flown by SkyWest	5h 39m	100%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON