Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 11:00 AM ET · 17 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 3479 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 3479 IND 06:00 → ORD 06:20 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 1495 IND 20:33 → ORD 20:50 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3479 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 06:00	ORD 06:20	2%	2%	0.6%	93%
YX 4412 Republic	IND 10:26	ORD 10:53	3%	2%	0.6%	no record
YX 3495 Republic	IND 08:12	ORD 08:35	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
YX 4562 Republic	IND 11:05	ORD 11:28	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 4557 American flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 06:40	ORD 07:03	5%	2%	0.6%	73%
YX 3561 Republic	IND 11:43	ORD 12:04	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 3483 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 07:20	ORD 07:37	6%	2%	0.6%	79%
YX 3527 Republic	IND 15:07	ORD 15:41	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
YX 4454 Republic	IND 14:25	ORD 14:52	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 3907 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	IND 11:56	ORD 12:14	7%	2%	0.6%	79%
UA 3657 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IND 19:03	ORD 19:34	10%	3%	0.7%	76%
OO 5287 SkyWest	IND 09:22	ORD 09:44	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 548 United	IND 13:27	ORD 13:44	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 630 American	IND 13:07	ORD 13:25	15%	4%	0.8%	no record
UA 1087 United	IND 17:12	ORD 17:17	19%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 2418 American	IND 20:40	ORD 21:05	20%	5%	0.8%	no record
UA 1495 United	IND 20:33	ORD 20:50	22%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON