Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Seattle on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 58% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 625 Alaska Flight history →	IND 07:04	SEA 08:52	15%	2%	0.7%	81%
AS 500 Alaska Flight history →	IND 17:19	SEA 19:09	16%	4%	0.7%	71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h behind Indianapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IND 07:00 → MSP 07:49DL 2757	3h 21m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889	9h 00m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	IND 07:25 → AUS 09:03DL 4015 · flown by SkyWest	2h 11m Austin	AUS 11:14 → SEA 13:45DL 1684	9h 20m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30DL 3105	2h 20m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → SEA 12:13DL 774	9h 18m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	IND 06:55 → ATL 08:36DL 3106	3h 57m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	10h 55m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	IND 12:18 → MSP 13:04DL 2456	2h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877	7h 42m	99%	89%
United Details →	IND 10:11 → IAD 11:55UA 3709 · flown by Republic	1h 14m Dulles	IAD 13:09 → SEA 15:57UA 1824	8h 46m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	IND 07:55 → SLC 09:26DL 2137	2h 09m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995	7h 54m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	IND 10:07 → ATL 11:43DL 3125	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 14:38 → SEA 16:49DL 481	9h 42m	100%	86%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	IND 17:14 → DFW 18:40AA 2456	53m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:33 → SEA 21:59AA 2009	7h 45m	58%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON