Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via O'Hare, leaving 06:59, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 45% of the time.

Nonstops that day


UA 500 United Flight history →	IND 05:55	SFO 07:36	6%	2%	0.6%	84%
UA 2799 United Flight history →	IND 18:25	SFO 20:18	16%	4%	0.6%	22%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Indianapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IND 12:18 → MSP 13:04DL 2456	2h 03m Minneapolis	MSP 15:07 → SFO 17:12DL 756	7h 54m	99%	90%
United Details →	IND 05:35 → IAD 07:19UA 6210 · flown by Mesa	2h 30m Dulles	IAD 09:49 → SFO 12:38UA 1773	10h 03m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30DL 3105	55m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → SFO 10:20DL 693	7h 25m	97%	90%
United Details →	IND 06:00 → ORD 06:20UA 3479 · flown by Republic	1h 10m Chicago	ORD 07:30 → SFO 10:19UA 1116	7h 19m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	IND 07:00 → MSP 07:49DL 2757	3h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074	9h 09m	99%	89%
United Details →	IND 10:11 → IAD 11:55UA 3709 · flown by Republic	2h 56m Dulles	IAD 14:51 → SFO 17:38UA 2862	10h 27m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	IND 06:55 → ATL 08:36DL 3106	1h 23m Atlanta	ATL 09:59 → SFO 11:55DL 672	8h 00m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	IND 10:07 → ATL 11:43DL 3125	2h 11m Atlanta	ATL 13:54 → SFO 15:49DL 823	8h 42m	100%	88%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	IND 17:14 → DFW 18:40AA 2456	48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:28 → SFO 21:10AA 1430	6h 56m	45%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON