Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 2939 at 06:01, with a 3% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 2939 Southwest	IND 06:01	TPA 08:25	3%	1%	1.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	IND 06:00 → ORD 06:20UA 3479 · flown by Republic	1h 11m Chicago	ORD 07:31 → TPA 11:24UA 2326	5h 24m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	IND 05:55 → ATL 07:30DL 3105	1h 08m Atlanta	ATL 08:38 → TPA 10:07DL 1227	4h 12m	97%	88%
United Details →	IND 07:05 → EWR 09:11UA 3567 · flown by Republic	2h 49m Newark	EWR 12:00 → TPA 15:06UA 601	8h 01m	100%	87%
American Details →	IND 06:00 → DCA 07:50AA 4626 · flown by Republic	2h 22m Washington	DCA 10:12 → TPA 12:50AA 3126	6h 50m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	IND 06:05 → LGA 08:15DL 5737 · flown by Republic	2h 25m New York	LGA 10:40 → TPA 13:28DL 2195	7h 23m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	IND 10:07 → ATL 11:43DL 3125	2h 18m Atlanta	ATL 14:01 → TPA 15:35DL 1720	5h 28m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	IND 06:55 → ATL 08:36DL 3106	1h 24m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → TPA 11:29DL 1587	4h 34m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	IND 07:00 → MSP 07:49DL 2757	2h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 10:00 → TPA 14:08DL 2264	7h 08m	99%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON