Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 18%, against 8% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2081 at 10:33, 10%.

Safest bet that day WN 2081 ISP 10:33 → MCO 13:15 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 547 ISP 16:23 → MCO 19:17 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Weather 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2081 Southwest	ISP 10:33	MCO 13:15	10%	2%	1.3%	no record
F9 2149 Frontier Flight history →	ISP 17:40	MCO 20:35	21%	10%	3.6%	77%
B6 547 JetBlue Flight history →	ISP 16:23	MCO 19:17	24%	10%	3.2%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON