Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2082 at 06:07 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 2082 ITO 06:07 → HNL 07:12 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1081 ITO 16:47 → HNL 17:40 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2082 Southwest	ITO 06:07	HNL 07:12	2%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2201 Southwest	ITO 07:57	HNL 09:08	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2083 Southwest	ITO 07:58	HNL 09:03	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2200 Southwest	ITO 05:59	HNL 07:10	3%	2%	0.7%	no record
AS 1001 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 06:00	HNL 06:54	5%	1%	0.8%	93%
WN 2202 Southwest	ITO 11:38	HNL 12:49	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 2085 Southwest	ITO 15:31	HNL 16:36	7%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 2084 Southwest	ITO 11:48	HNL 12:53	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
AS 1011 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 07:35	HNL 08:29	8%	2%	0.8%	91%
WN 2086 Southwest	ITO 18:53	HNL 19:58	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 1021 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 09:26	HNL 10:20	16%	3%	0.8%	89%
AS 1031 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 11:27	HNL 12:22	22%	3%	0.8%	75%
AS 1061 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 14:59	HNL 15:55	22%	4%	0.8%	80%
AS 1101 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 17:56	HNL 19:01	23%	3%	0.8%	77%
AS 1111 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 18:47	HNL 19:52	24%	3%	0.9%	73%
AS 1121 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 19:43	HNL 20:48	26%	4%	1.3%	75%
AS 1051 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 13:59	HNL 14:54	28%	5%	0.8%	70%
AS 1131 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 20:40	HNL 21:45	28%	5%	1.6%	57%
AS 1081 Alaska Flight history →	ITO 16:47	HNL 17:40	28%	5%	0.8%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON