tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AS 1019 at 08:30, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 1019 Alaska Flight history → ITO 08:30 OGG 09:10 11% 2% 0.7% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → ITO 06:00 → HNL 06:54AS 1001 1h 08m Honolulu HNL 08:02 → OGG 08:43AS 1046 2h 43m 97% 81%
AlaskaDetails → ITO 07:35 → HNL 08:29AS 1011 1h 52m Honolulu HNL 10:21 → OGG 11:15AS 1066 3h 40m 98% 77%
AlaskaDetails → ITO 09:26 → HNL 10:20AS 1021 2h 11m Honolulu HNL 12:31 → OGG 13:25AS 1096 3h 59m 99% 73%
AlaskaDetails → ITO 13:59 → HNL 14:54AS 1051 1h 51m Honolulu HNL 16:45 → OGG 17:35AS 1176 3h 36m 98% 72%
AlaskaDetails → ITO 11:27 → HNL 12:22AS 1031 2h 14m Honolulu HNL 14:36 → OGG 15:26AS 1136 3h 59m 99% 70%
AlaskaDetails → ITO 16:47 → HNL 17:40AS 1081 3h 21m Honolulu HNL 21:01 → OGG 21:51AS 1226 5h 04m 100% 69%
AlaskaDetails → ITO 14:59 → HNL 15:55AS 1061 3h 41m Honolulu HNL 19:36 → OGG 20:26AS 1216 5h 27m 99% 65%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → ITO 07:35 → HNL 08:29AS 1011 47m Honolulu HNL 09:16 → OGG 10:10AS 1056 2h 35m 69% 55%
AlaskaDetails → ITO 14:59 → HNL 15:55AS 1061 50m Honolulu HNL 16:45 → OGG 17:35AS 1176 2h 36m 56% 41%
AlaskaDetails → ITO 13:59 → HNL 14:54AS 1051 46m Honolulu HNL 15:40 → OGG 16:30AS 1156 2h 31m 40% 26%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON