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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Denver, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Newark on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 2 h ahead of Jackson). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → JAC 07:00 → DEN 08:40UA 1978 4h 00m Denver DEN 12:40 → EWR 18:35UA 1283 9h 35m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → JAC 07:40 → SLC 08:50DL 4022 · flown by SkyWest 1h 39m Salt Lake City SLC 10:29 → EWR 16:49DL 2033 7h 09m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → JAC 13:42 → DEN 15:18UA 1717 3h 56m Denver DEN 19:14 → EWR 01:02 +1UA 2093 9h 20m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → JAC 08:35 → ATL 14:15DL 317 1h 18m Atlanta ATL 15:33 → EWR 17:53DL 2340 7h 18m 95% 76%
UnitedDetails → JAC 14:44 → DEN 16:21UA 2791 1h 49m Denver DEN 18:10 → EWR 23:45UA 2613 7h 01m 94% 75%
UnitedDetails → JAC 10:42 → DEN 12:16UA 5543 · flown by SkyWest 3h 19m Denver DEN 15:35 → EWR 21:29UA 1715 8h 47m 100% 75%
AmericanDetails → JAC 11:00 → CLT 17:00AA 1049 3h 06m Charlotte CLT 20:06 → EWR 22:12AA 2794 9h 12m 98% 73%
AmericanDetails → JAC 11:48 → DFW 15:36AA 3052 2h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:08 → EWR 22:46AA 618 8h 58m 97% 72%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON