Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:40, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Minneapolis on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h ahead of Jackson). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JAC 07:40 → SLC 08:50DL 4022 · flown by SkyWest	2h 20m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → MSP 14:40DL 2924	6h 00m	99%	91%
United Details →	JAC 10:41 → DEN 12:16UA 5543 · flown by SkyWest	1h 26m Denver	DEN 13:42 → MSP 16:46UA 732	5h 05m	98%	86%
United Details →	JAC 07:00 → DEN 08:40UA 1978	1h 00m Denver	DEN 09:40 → MSP 12:40UA 397	4h 40m	94%	86%
Delta Details →	JAC 13:15 → SLC 14:22DL 2282	2h 59m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:21 → MSP 20:54DL 2935	6h 39m	99%	86%
United Details →	JAC 13:42 → DEN 15:18UA 1717	2h 27m Denver	DEN 17:45 → MSP 20:51UA 2076	6h 09m	97%	82%
American Details →	JAC 11:00 → CLT 17:00AA 1049	2h 06m Charlotte	CLT 19:06 → MSP 20:54AA 2176	8h 54m	94%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON