Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:40, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching San Diego on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 1 h behind Jackson). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JAC 07:40 → SLC 08:50DL 4022 · flown by SkyWest	2h 20m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296	5h 28m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	JAC 13:15 → SLC 14:22DL 2282	2h 48m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:10 → SAN 18:06DL 1252	5h 51m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	JAC 08:35 → ATL 14:15DL 317	1h 22m Atlanta	ATL 15:37 → SAN 17:20DL 924	9h 45m	96%	83%
United Details →	JAC 07:00 → DEN 08:40UA 1978	2h 35m Denver	DEN 11:15 → SAN 12:41UA 1940	6h 41m	99%	83%
United Details →	JAC 10:41 → DEN 12:16UA 5543 · flown by SkyWest	1h 14m Denver	DEN 13:30 → SAN 14:55UA 1302	5h 14m	97%	81%
American Details →	JAC 11:48 → DFW 15:36AA 3052	1h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:04 → SAN 18:25AA 2266	7h 37m	95%	78%
United Details →	JAC 14:44 → DEN 16:21UA 2791	2h 59m Denver	DEN 19:20 → SAN 20:46UA 540	7h 02m	97%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON