tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 13:15, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching San Francisco on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
OO 5850 SkyWest JAC 18:21 SFO 20:15 10% 6% 1.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 1 h behind Jackson). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → JAC 10:41 → DEN 12:16UA 5543 · flown by SkyWest 3h 31m Denver DEN 15:47 → SFO 17:30UA 2633 7h 49m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → JAC 13:42 → DEN 15:18UA 1717 2h 36m Denver DEN 17:54 → SFO 19:40UA 1007 6h 58m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → JAC 07:00 → DEN 08:40UA 1978 2h 41m Denver DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561 7h 04m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → JAC 07:40 → SLC 08:50DL 4022 · flown by SkyWest 2h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 11:00 → SFO 12:03DL 902 5h 23m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → JAC 13:15 → SLC 14:22DL 2282 48m Salt Lake City SLC 15:10 → SFO 16:12DL 1088 3h 57m 90% 75%
AmericanDetails → JAC 14:01 → LAX 15:34AA 6471 · flown by SkyWest 1h 59m Los Angeles LAX 17:33 → SFO 18:46AA 3138 5h 45m 98% 74%
UnitedDetails → JAC 14:44 → DEN 16:21UA 2791 3h 13m Denver DEN 19:34 → SFO 21:20UA 1389 7h 36m 97% 73%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON