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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 2722 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 7–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 2722 JAX 05:30 → ATL 06:42 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 1549 JAX 19:41 → ATL 21:11 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time
Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.

DL 2722 Delta Flight history → JAX 05:30 ATL 06:42 2% 2% 0.9% 93%
DL 2450 Delta Flight history → JAX 07:00 ATL 08:15 5% 3% 0.9% 92%
DL 2569 Delta Flight history → JAX 08:17 ATL 09:34 5% 2% 0.8% 91%
DL 2328 Delta Flight history → JAX 09:41 ATL 10:54 5% 3% 0.8% 91%
DL 2326 Delta Flight history → JAX 10:41 ATL 11:54 5% 3% 0.9% 89%
DL 2923 Delta Flight history → JAX 13:05 ATL 14:15 6% 3% 1.0% 85%
DL 2440 Delta Flight history → JAX 18:59 ATL 20:22 7% 3% 0.9% 94%
DL 2720 Delta Flight history → JAX 17:40 ATL 19:00 7% 3% 0.9% 79%
DL 3024 Delta Flight history → JAX 14:50 ATL 16:06 8% 3% 0.8% 82%
DL 2990 Delta Flight history → JAX 16:14 ATL 17:32 8% 3% 0.8% 80%
F9 1549 Frontier Flight history → JAX 19:41 ATL 21:11 19% 10% 2.1% 64%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON