Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 1876 Southwest	JAX 11:04	AUS 12:36	11%	2%	2.3%	no record
DL 3772 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	JAX 14:31	AUS 16:25	16%	5%	2.7%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 1 h behind Jacksonville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JAX 05:30 → ATL 06:42DL 2722	1h 28m Atlanta	ATL 08:10 → AUS 09:27DL 2976	4h 57m	98%	93%
Delta Details →	JAX 07:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2450	1h 28m Atlanta	ATL 09:43 → AUS 11:03DL 2886	5h 03m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	JAX 09:41 → ATL 10:54DL 2328	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 14:15 → AUS 15:50DL 1397	7h 09m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	JAX 08:17 → ATL 09:34DL 2569	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → AUS 13:54DL 2104	6h 37m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	JAX 10:41 → ATL 11:54DL 2326	3h 56m Atlanta	ATL 15:50 → AUS 17:19DL 1491	7h 38m	100%	87%
United Details →	JAX 09:20 → IAD 11:16UA 1434	1h 54m Dulles	IAD 13:10 → AUS 15:37UA 2746	7h 17m	98%	87%
United Details →	JAX 09:34 → ORD 11:22UA 1239	2h 20m Chicago	ORD 13:42 → AUS 16:33UA 1211	7h 59m	97%	86%
United Details →	JAX 07:05 → IAH 08:29UA 2453	3h 36m Houston	IAH 12:05 → AUS 13:12UA 1859	7h 07m	98%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON