Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 5632 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–41%.

Safest bet that day DL 5632 JAX 06:45 → BOS 09:34 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest B6 810 JAX 16:41 → BOS 19:30 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5632 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JAX 06:45	BOS 09:34	5%	2%	0.9%	92%
B6 1310 JetBlue Flight history →	JAX 10:46	BOS 13:26	20%	7%	1.1%	73%
DL 5657 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JAX 19:25	BOS 22:22	23%	13%	1.2%	73%
DL 5597 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JAX 12:24	BOS 15:15	25%	12%	0.9%	77%
B6 810 JetBlue Flight history →	JAX 16:41	BOS 19:30	41%	24%	1.7%	72%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON