tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 2333 Delta Flight history → JAX 11:47 DTW 14:08 5% 3% 0.8% 90%
DL 2994 Delta Flight history → JAX 18:22 DTW 20:45 8% 3% 1.0% 84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JAX 05:30 → ATL 06:42DL 2722 1h 38m Atlanta ATL 08:20 → DTW 10:19DL 643 4h 49m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → JAX 07:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2450 2h 45m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → DTW 12:56DL 1240 5h 56m 99% 92%
AmericanDetails → JAX 06:22 → ORD 08:17AA 764 1h 45m Chicago ORD 10:02 → DTW 12:39AA 3977 · flown by Envoy 6h 17m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → JAX 09:41 → ATL 10:54DL 2328 2h 53m Atlanta ATL 13:47 → DTW 15:42DL 1031 6h 01m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → JAX 10:41 → ATL 11:54DL 2326 3h 34m Atlanta ATL 15:28 → DTW 17:27DL 1005 6h 46m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → JAX 17:40 → ATL 19:00DL 2720 3h 59m Atlanta ATL 22:59 → DTW 00:59 +1DL 2940 7h 19m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → JAX 09:35 → EWR 11:59UA 1144 2h 08m Newark EWR 14:07 → DTW 16:07UA 3437 · flown by Republic 6h 32m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → JAX 13:05 → ATL 14:15DL 2923 3h 56m Atlanta ATL 18:11 → DTW 20:13DL 1478 7h 08m 99% 88%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON