Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 1144 at 09:35 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20%.

Safest bet that day UA 1144 JAX 09:35 → EWR 11:59 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 399 JAX 15:38 → EWR 17:58 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1144 United Flight history →	JAX 09:35	EWR 11:59	7%	3%	0.9%	88%
UA 2325 United	JAX 18:57	EWR 21:22	20%	5%	1.0%	no record
UA 399 United	JAX 15:38	EWR 17:58	20%	6%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON