Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 30%, against 10% on a calm day. Safest: B6 17 at 07:17, 11%.

Safest bet that day B6 17 JAX 07:17 → FLL 08:54 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest B6 2117 JAX 15:27 → FLL 17:04 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time

Weather 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 17 JetBlue Flight history →	JAX 07:17	FLL 08:54	11%	4%	1.6%	91%
MX 1737 Breeze	JAX 15:46	FLL 17:14	37%	15%	3.2%	no record
B6 2117 JetBlue Flight history →	JAX 15:27	FLL 17:04	41%	21%	5.3%	89%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON