Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 1434 United Flight history →	JAX 09:20	IAD 11:16	5%	2%	0.7%	90%
UA 1938 United Flight history →	JAX 12:32	IAD 14:38	8%	4%	0.7%	93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JAX 05:30 → ATL 06:42DL 2722	1h 01m Atlanta	ATL 07:43 → IAD 09:26DL 1324	3h 56m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	JAX 07:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2450	1h 35m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → IAD 11:37DL 1444	4h 37m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	JAX 08:17 → ATL 09:34DL 2569	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → IAD 14:01DL 2135	5h 44m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	JAX 17:40 → ATL 19:00DL 2720	3h 53m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549	7h 01m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	JAX 13:05 → ATL 14:15DL 2923	3h 50m Atlanta	ATL 18:05 → IAD 19:54DL 1309	6h 49m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	JAX 10:41 → ATL 11:54DL 2326	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 14:59 → IAD 16:46DL 1695	6h 05m	100%	84%
American Details →	JAX 13:00 → CLT 14:31AA 1925	1h 45m Charlotte	CLT 16:16 → IAD 17:54AA 5447 · flown by PSA	4h 54m	97%	81%
United Details →	JAX 11:37 → IAH 13:11UA 4039 · flown by Mesa	1h 43m Houston	IAH 14:54 → IAD 19:12UA 1178	7h 35m	96%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	JAX 16:55 → ORD 18:48UA 2211	52m Chicago	ORD 19:40 → IAD 22:30UA 304	5h 35m	68%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON