Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, UA 2453 at 07:05, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2453 JAX 07:05 → IAH 08:29 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2453 United Flight history →	JAX 07:05	IAH 08:29	6%	3%	0.9%	94%
UA 4039 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	JAX 11:37	IAH 13:11	11%	4%	0.0%	89%
UA 4047 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	JAX 16:23	IAH 17:58	12%	6%	0.0%	88%
UA 6224 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	JAX 09:20	IAH 10:54	18%	10%	0.0%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON