Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 764 at 06:22 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24%.

Safest bet that day AA 764 JAX 06:22 → ORD 08:17 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest OO 5401 JAX 12:38 → ORD 14:28 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 764 American Flight history →	JAX 06:22	ORD 08:17	10%	3%	1.9%	81%
UA 1239 United Flight history →	JAX 09:34	ORD 11:22	14%	5%	1.0%	82%
OO 5258 SkyWest	JAX 07:03	ORD 08:42	17%	5%	3.1%	no record
YX 4459 Republic	JAX 12:21	ORD 14:19	18%	7%	1.8%	no record
UA 2211 United Flight history →	JAX 16:55	ORD 18:48	24%	10%	0.8%	70%
AA 3486 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	JAX 18:19	ORD 20:10	24%	8%	1.3%	86%worse than usual
OO 5401 SkyWest	JAX 12:38	ORD 14:28	25%	10%	2.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON