tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Phoenix on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Jacksonville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JAX 05:30 → ATL 06:42DL 2722 1h 28m Atlanta ATL 08:10 → PHX 09:01DL 348 6h 31m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → JAX 07:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2450 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796 8h 03m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → JAX 08:17 → ATL 09:34DL 2569 3h 56m Atlanta ATL 13:30 → PHX 14:18DL 366 9h 01m 100% 89%
AmericanDetails → JAX 06:18 → CLT 07:45AA 1834 3h 52m Charlotte CLT 11:37 → PHX 12:56AA 588 9h 38m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → JAX 16:14 → ATL 17:32DL 2990 3h 03m Atlanta ATL 20:35 → PHX 21:45DL 929 8h 31m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → JAX 08:09 → DEN 09:55UA 671 3h 32m Denver DEN 13:27 → PHX 14:33UA 631 9h 24m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → JAX 07:24 → DFW 09:12AA 1171 2h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:22 → PHX 12:05AA 359 7h 41m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → JAX 13:05 → ATL 14:15DL 2923 3h 44m Atlanta ATL 17:59 → PHX 18:53DL 836 8h 48m 99% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON