Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching San Juan on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach San Juan on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JAX 05:30 → ATL 06:42DL 2722	3h 03m Atlanta	ATL 09:45 → SJU 13:32DL 1882	8h 02m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	JAX 08:17 → ATL 09:34DL 2569	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 13:00 → SJU 16:39DL 1946	8h 22m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	JAX 14:50 → ATL 16:06DL 3024	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 18:45 → SJU 22:30DL 1861	7h 40m	99%	86%
American Details →	JAX 06:18 → CLT 07:45AA 1834	3h 18m Charlotte	CLT 11:03 → SJU 14:50AA 783	8h 32m	99%	85%
United Details →	JAX 07:05 → IAH 08:29UA 2453	1h 34m Houston	IAH 10:03 → SJU 15:42UA 1192	8h 37m	96%	81%
JetBlue Details →	JAX 07:17 → FLL 08:54B6 17	1h 16m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 10:10 → SJU 12:48B6 1553	5h 31m	100%	79%
American Details →	JAX 07:30 → MIA 08:57AA 2711	2h 08m Miami	MIA 11:05 → SJU 13:50AA 1613	6h 20m	94%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON