Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 753 at 06:19, with a 3% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 753 Southwest	JAX 06:19	STL 07:31	3%	1%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Jacksonville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JAX 05:30 → ATL 06:42DL 2722	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 09:04 → STL 09:43DL 1400	5h 13m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	JAX 07:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2450	3h 25m Atlanta	ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566	6h 17m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	JAX 10:41 → ATL 11:54DL 2326	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 15:17 → STL 16:07DL 543	6h 26m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	JAX 18:59 → ATL 20:22DL 2440	2h 48m Atlanta	ATL 23:10 → STL 23:53DL 1403	5h 54m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	JAX 11:47 → DTW 14:08DL 2333	2h 37m Detroit	DTW 16:45 → STL 17:24DL 2822	6h 37m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	JAX 14:50 → ATL 16:06DL 3024	3h 09m Atlanta	ATL 19:15 → STL 20:06DL 2833	6h 16m	99%	85%
United Details →	JAX 09:34 → ORD 11:22UA 1239	2h 58m Chicago	ORD 14:20 → STL 15:46UA 2000	7h 12m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	JAX 13:05 → ATL 14:15DL 2923	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 17:10 → STL 17:53DL 1393	5h 48m	97%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON