Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Alaska via Portland, leaving 09:59, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 4 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	JFK 09:59 → PDX 12:41AS 19	1h 50m Portland	PDX 14:31 → ANC 17:30AS 315	11h 31m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	JFK 07:00 → SEA 10:14DL 699	3h 26m Seattle	SEA 13:40 → ANC 16:25DL 928	13h 25m	100%	81%
Alaska Details →	JFK 13:00 → SEA 16:19AS 23	3h 38m Seattle	SEA 19:57 → ANC 22:44AS 769	13h 44m	99%	80%
Alaska Details →	JFK 16:29 → SEA 20:09AS 31	1h 54m Seattle	SEA 22:03 → ANC 00:50 +1AS 1490	12h 21m	95%	74%
Alaska Details →	JFK 07:00 → SEA 10:16AS 21	1h 55m Seattle	SEA 12:11 → ANC 14:58AS 1434	11h 58m	97%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	JFK 07:00 → SEA 10:16AS 21	48m Seattle	SEA 11:04 → ANC 14:12AS 1432	11h 12m	74%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON