Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 1406 at 07:07 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 1406 JFK 07:07 → AUS 10:04 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 1233 JFK 20:33 → AUS 23:19 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1406 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:07	AUS 10:04	8%	2%	0.9%	93%
AA 810 American	JFK 07:41	AUS 10:38	11%	3%	1.1%	no record
DL 1643 Delta Flight history →	JFK 13:40	AUS 16:47	15%	5%	1.8%	86%
AA 2303 American	JFK 12:39	AUS 15:37	16%	4%	1.3%	no record
DL 2323 Delta Flight history →	JFK 11:10	AUS 14:06	16%	3%	1.0%	84%
AA 2772 American Flight history →	JFK 19:08	AUS 22:08	19%	6%	1.3%	80%
DL 1233 Delta Flight history →	JFK 20:33	AUS 23:19	20%	6%	1.0%	76%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	JFK 07:49 → ATL 10:18DL 2286	47m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011	5h 36m	84%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON