Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: YX 4697 at 08:46 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–19%.

Safest bet that day YX 4697 JFK 08:46 → BNA 10:17 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 4908 JFK 19:29 → BNA 20:43 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4697 Republic	JFK 08:46	BNA 10:17	8%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 4350 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 13:29	BNA 15:00	8%	2%	0.6%	80%
DL 4919 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	JFK 07:49	BNA 09:05	9%	1%	0.7%	83%
AA 4710 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 14:39	BNA 16:21	9%	3%	0.6%	75%
DL 4662 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	JFK 11:38	BNA 12:54	10%	2%	0.7%	73%
B6 273 JetBlue	JFK 08:07	BNA 09:28	15%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 4909 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	JFK 15:45	BNA 17:00	16%	3%	0.7%	74%
DL 4908 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	JFK 19:29	BNA 20:43	19%	4%	0.8%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON