Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 5765 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–48%.

Safest bet that day DL 5765 JFK 06:00 → BOS 07:26 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest B6 8503 JFK 15:27 → BOS 16:42 · 48% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5765 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 06:00	BOS 07:26	5%	2%	1.2%	92%
B6 2718 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 06:00	BOS 07:14	8%	3%	1.5%	89%
YX 4364 Republic	JFK 08:48	BOS 10:12	12%	3%	1.2%	no record
DL 5733 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 09:50	BOS 11:15	13%	3%	1.3%	86%
B6 1018 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 10:00	BOS 11:33	20%	6%	1.7%	84%
AA 4659 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 22:04	BOS 23:20	30%	11%	2.9%	79%
B6 1118 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 12:59	BOS 14:22	32%	15%	2.0%	63%
DL 5595 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 14:30	BOS 16:08	33%	16%	4.8%	79%worse than usual
B6 1318 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 22:29	BOS 23:59	34%	16%	2.4%	65%
AA 4397 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 15:47	BOS 17:15	35%	19%	5.1%	63%
DL 2639 Delta Flight history →	JFK 20:59	BOS 22:44	39%	16%	1.3%	71%
DL 5798 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 17:30	BOS 19:16	41%	23%	3.7%	63%
B6 618 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 15:50	BOS 17:17	44%	26%	5.1%	59%
B6 818 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 17:25	BOS 18:59	48%	25%	3.1%	69%worse than usual
B6 8503 JetBlue	JFK 15:27	BOS 16:42	48%	25%	5.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON