Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: B6 1602 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–22%.

Safest bet that day B6 1602 JFK 06:30 → BUF 07:52 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest B6 1202 JFK 16:46 → BUF 18:26 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 1602 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 06:30	BUF 07:52	5%	2%	0.8%	89%
DL 5223 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	JFK 09:07	BUF 10:24	8%	2%	0.7%	89%
DL 5296 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	JFK 13:24	BUF 14:41	8%	4%	1.0%	82%
B6 2902 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 13:29	BUF 14:59	14%	6%	1.2%	82%
DL 5264 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	JFK 22:36	BUF 23:53	18%	6%	1.3%	83%
DL 5250 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	JFK 17:28	BUF 18:45	18%	5%	1.8%	74%
B6 1202 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 16:46	BUF 18:26	22%	8%	1.6%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON