tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Boston, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Baltimore on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JFK 06:00 → BOS 07:26DL 5765 · flown by Republic 3h 44m Boston BOS 11:10 → BWI 12:53DL 5668 · flown by Republic 6h 53m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → JFK 07:49 → ATL 10:18DL 2286 3h 44m Atlanta ATL 14:02 → BWI 15:53DL 2799 8h 04m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → JFK 08:40 → ATL 11:23DL 2227 3h 57m Atlanta ATL 15:20 → BWI 17:15DL 1267 8h 35m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → JFK 13:10 → ATL 15:45DL 2342 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 19:30 → BWI 21:26DL 1257 8h 16m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → JFK 07:59 → CLT 10:07AA 1444 2h 28m Charlotte CLT 12:35 → BWI 14:11AA 2733 6h 12m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → JFK 11:00 → ATL 13:33DL 1029 3h 12m Atlanta ATL 16:45 → BWI 18:41DL 2928 7h 41m 97% 82%
AmericanDetails → JFK 11:59 → CLT 14:05AA 493 2h 12m Charlotte CLT 16:17 → BWI 17:55AA 3121 5h 56m 97% 78%
DeltaDetails → JFK 07:15 → DTW 09:23DL 5080 · flown by Endeavor 52m Detroit DTW 10:15 → BWI 11:47DL 1546 4h 32m 83% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → JFK 17:30 → BOS 19:16DL 5798 · flown by Republic 1h 19m Boston BOS 20:35 → BWI 22:29DL 5851 · flown by Republic 4h 59m 70% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON