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Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 11:14, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Bozeman on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 2 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JFK 11:14 → SLC 14:21DL 917 2h 59m Salt Lake City SLC 17:20 → BZN 18:44DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest 9h 30m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → JFK 16:27 → SLC 19:55DL 887 3h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 23:05 → BZN 00:23 +1DL 2046 9h 56m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → JFK 07:15 → MSP 09:25DL 2390 1h 32m Minneapolis MSP 10:57 → BZN 12:30DL 2946 7h 15m 95% 89%
DeltaDetails → JFK 06:00 → SLC 09:03DL 892 52m Salt Lake City SLC 09:55 → BZN 11:17DL 1971 7h 17m 93% 87%
DeltaDetails → JFK 18:04 → MSP 19:54DL 2245 2h 29m Minneapolis MSP 22:23 → BZN 23:52DL 2954 7h 48m 92% 85%
DeltaDetails → JFK 07:00 → SEA 10:14DL 699 1h 26m Seattle SEA 11:40 → BZN 14:35DL 4104 · flown by SkyWest 9h 35m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → JFK 08:15 → DFW 11:11AA 2234 2h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:23 → BZN 15:40AA 947 9h 25m 96% 83%
AlaskaDetails → JFK 13:00 → SEA 16:19AS 23 3h 55m Seattle SEA 20:14 → BZN 22:52AS 1323 11h 52m 99% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON