Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:49, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Dallas on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JFK 07:49 → ATL 10:18DL 2286	3h 41m Atlanta	ATL 13:59 → DAL 15:03DL 512	8h 14m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	JFK 15:41 → ATL 18:34DL 1480	2h 41m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104	7h 44m	94%	80%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:00 → ATL 13:33DL 1029	3h 11m Atlanta	ATL 16:44 → DAL 17:54DL 2780	7h 54m	97%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON