Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 532 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 532 JFK 08:30 → DEN 10:58 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest DL 424 JFK 17:47 → DEN 19:54 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 532 Delta Flight history →	JFK 08:30	DEN 10:58	7%	1%	0.5%	85%
B6 1497 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 12:07	DEN 14:23	11%	3%	0.6%	83%
DL 424 Delta Flight history →	JFK 17:47	DEN 19:54	19%	2%	0.5%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON