Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 2234 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 2234 JFK 08:15 → DFW 11:11 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 606 JFK 20:34 → DFW 23:13 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2234 American Flight history →	JFK 08:15	DFW 11:11	10%	3%	1.0%	85%
AA 1010 American	JFK 09:23	DFW 11:53	12%	4%	1.0%	no record
AA 1880 American	JFK 11:36	DFW 14:29	14%	4%	1.1%	no record
AA 1953 American Flight history →	JFK 14:42	DFW 17:44	21%	7%	2.7%	69%
DL 496 Delta Flight history →	JFK 17:55	DFW 21:07	22%	7%	1.2%	71%
AA 606 American Flight history →	JFK 20:34	DFW 23:13	24%	6%	1.6%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON